In the following sections is more detailed information and graphics about how ENSO affects the weather across West Central and Southwest Florida. Click on one of the buttons below to go directly to that section. Also, all images can be magnified by clicking, and resized back to original size with a second click.
Following are U.S. maps of the Winter (December-February) departure from average precipitation and temperature for each category of El Niño and La Niña since 1950.
|El Niño Precipitation||El Niño Temperature|
|La Niña Precipitation||La Niña Temperature|
What plays a larger role in controlling temperatures across Florida during the winter and early spring is the Arctic Oscillation (AO) as we saw back in early 2010. This oscillation shifts on a monthly and sometimes weekly basis and typically is not included in long term forecasts. For more details about the AO and its effect on West Central and Southwest Florida visit Arctic Oscillation: Impacts on West Central and Southwest Florida.
This can also be seen in the Box and Whisker Distribution Plots* for the three climate zones across the Florida peninsula shown below:
Long term averages indicate three to six days of freezing temperatures each winter across inland portions of Central Florida with only about one freeze over Southwest Florida. Farther north across the Nature Coast many more days of freezing temperatures occur with some locations such as Inverness and Bushnell having on average around 12 days, while farther north near Chiefland there are as many as 20 days with temperatures falling to or below 32° each winter. Overall the difference in the number of days with freezing temperatures each winter is not that much between the ENSO phases as seen in the graphics below, but more dependent on the phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). For more details visit Arctic Oscillation: Impacts on West Central and Southwest Florida.
Residents of West Central and Southwest Florida should remain informed of potential weather events this upcoming winter and early spring and stay tuned to local media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for the latest weather information.
Other Web Sites:
Climate Prediction Center
NOAA Climate.gov ENSO Page
NOAA Climate.gov Arctic Oscillation Page
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-arctic-oscillation <!–br />
NWS Tampa Bay Local El Niño/La Niña Page
NWS Tampa Bay Local Arctic Oscillation Page
January 2010 Cold Snap
NWS Tampa Bay 2009-2010 Winter Newsletter
Current Drought Conditions in Florida
NWS Tampa Bay Local Drought/Rainfall Page